Powerful Trading Psychology Lessons from Mark Douglas – Part V
Anything could happen
“You don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money. Anything can happen. Every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience. The trade either works or it doesn’t.” – Mark Douglas
Mark is reinforcing the point that there is no situation which has a ‘100% certainty rating’ in the markets.
Because of this ‘nothing is certain’ variable – you need to work with, and actually build your thought process around probabilities to maximize your chances of success.
Price movements are ‘people generated events’.
The charts and price movements are really just the collective beliefs of all the market participants on what’s going to happen in the future. No mathematical model can predict human behavior very well. This is one of the reasons I don’t like Stock Indicators.
Traders that put too much emphasis on one particular event playing out the way they predict, will learn a harsh lesson.
Mark Douglas tells us that “nothing is certain, anything can happen”, so we need to accommodate that uncertainty through a consistent money management plan.
Nothing is absolute in Stock, even the best looking trade that you might view as a ‘guaranteed win’, still has a chance to fail. This is why probabilities and money management separate the boys from the men.
Bharat Jhunjhunwala MFTA, CMT, CFTe, MSTA